Kim Muir Handicap Chase Trends - Cheltenham Betting

Jessica Lamb

February 18th, 2021

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BEST 2021 KIM MUIR HANDICAP CHASE TRENDS

• Run in at least 5 chases, preferably more
• Won no more than 2 handicap chases, if any
• Did not win last time out, or even that season
• Run in at least two handicap chases
• Not French-bred

Betting On 2021 Kim Muir Handicap Chase? Follow These Trends:

Above are the top five trends to follow when looking for the winner of the 2021 Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival.

We've analysed in detail the last 15 runnings of this amateur riders' test, taking deep dives into the form of the winners and placed horses, looking at their past runs, their ratings, and every other statistic we could think of.

What we found are very strong markers that will steer you towards the winner of this year's Kim Muir, as they did last year when circling the second.

Scroll down to find out how the trends did that last year, and read full details of all the key Kim Muir trends to follow, beyond the top five.

Get the latest Kim Muir Handicap Chase Odds here

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Did Trends Win The Last Kim Muir Handicap Chase?

There were four horses who fit the Kim Muir Handicap Chase trends in 2020, including the second and fourth.

At 5/1, Le Breuil was the shortest of the trends tips in the Cheltenham betting, earning that market position with victory in the previous season's National Hunt Chase.

He ticked almost every box on trends, including having had his last big run in Warwick's Classic Chase, only winning two chases, only having two handicap chase runs, and having not won that season.

He was also racing off a rating 5lbs below his best, which has been emerging trend, and ridden by Jamie Codd, who has ridden four of the last 12 winners. The one negative was that he was a French-bred, and apart from his Cheltenham win, his form over 3m+ was suspect. He finished 11th.

At 10-1, Plan Of Attack was the best value in the trends picks, and was a strong selection off the back of his third last time out in Leopardstown's Paddy Power Chase, which has proven a Key Race (see below) for the Kim Muir.

He had also won a 3m1f handicap chase at Aintree on his handicap debut, though it was concerning that he had only run four times over fences.

The 8/1 shots Deise Abu and Kilfilum Cross completed the trends shortlist, the latter having finished second the previous year, and filling the same position in 2020.

He ticked every single trend available, and was just unlucky to bump into the fast-improving novice Milan Native, who had never won a chase, nor run in a handicap before.

Deise Abu's main negative was that he had no Cheltenham experience, but he was also racing off a career-high rating, which goes against the profile of recent winners.

Third Bob Mahler was discounted as being far too exposed.

KEY KIM MUIR HANDICAP CHASE TRENDS

15-year-trends

The last 15 winners…

• Had run in at least five chases, 9 running in 9 or more
• Had won no more than two handicap chases, 10 winning none
• Had finished in the first three no more than four runs ago

13 of the last 15 winners…

• Had run in no more than nine handicap chases, the average being 4 runs

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

• Had won on a galloping track
• Had won on a left-handed track
• Had run over 3m or further at least once; four winning
• Were not French-bred; 41 ran, three placed.
• Did not win last time out; only one had won that season
• Had won only 0-3 chases; the last two had won no chases

Nine of the last 10 winners…

• Were aged no older than 9
• Had run in at least two handicap chases, and no more than seven
• Last ran no more than 76 days ago

Eight of the last 10 winners…

• Were aged 7 or 8
• Had run at Cheltenham over fences before, five placing, and six running at the Festival
• Last ran in a handicap chase or handicap hurdle; exceptions won in 2019 and 2020
• Wore headgear, a tongue tie, or both

Six of the last seven winners...

• Were running off a handicap mark at least 2lbs below their career-high, two were 10lbs lower. The five previous winners, and 2020 winner, were running off a career-high mark

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The last 40 win and place positions

40/40 placed horses

• Had won on a galloping track

39/40 placed horse

• Had won no more than four handicap chases
• Had run at least three times in the last 12 months

38/40 placed horses

• Had run at least twice that season
• Had won on a left-handed track

37/40 placed horses

• Were aged no older than 10

27/40 placed horses

• Wore headgear, a tongue tie, or both

KEY RACE TRENDS (10 years)

(Last major race contested before Kim Muir Handicap Chase)

KEY TRAINER TRENDS (10 years)

How Milan Native won 2020’s Kim Muir Handicap Chase

Ridden by Rob James, Milan Native did not lead until the penultimat fence in the 2020 Kim Muir Handicap Chase, but then romped to an almost two-length win over 2019's bridesmaid Kilfilum Cross.

The seven-year-old had been sent off at 9/1 to win his handicap debut, despite being a maiden over fences, and went on to give trainer Gordon Elliott a second win in the race in just five years.

5.30 CHELTENHAM - 2020 Kim Muir Handicap Chase Result

1. Milan Native 9/1
2. Kilfilum Cross 8/1
3. Bob Mahler 16/1
4. Plan Of Attack 10/1

Kilfilum Cross had been too inexperienced when a close second in 2019, but returned after a win surgery and with cheekpieces now applied. However, it was not quite enough for the nine-year-old to hold off his more unexposed rival.

Finishing a length and a half back in third was Bob Mahler, wearing blinkers for the first time after a win at Musselburgh last time, and in fourth was Paddy Power Chase third Plan Of Attack, who had not run since that Christmas outing.

Cheltenham 2021 Thursday Schedule

13:30 Marsh Novices' Chase trends

14:10 Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle trends

14:50 Ryanair Chase trends

15:30 STAYERS' HURDLE trends

16:10 Festival Plate Handicap Chase trends

16:50 Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle trends

17:30 - Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase